Influenza Pandemics In Hajj Pilgrimage In Mecca: Past, Present And Future

Abstract

Introduction: The annual Hajj pilgrimage in Mecca, Saudi Arabia, uniquely attracts over 3 million participants from more than 180 countries, who gather for several days. Although Saudi authorities have effectively managed these vast numbers, the risk of  epidemics  posesa  continuous  challenge.  An  early  warning  system  capable  of  forecasting  epidemic  outbreaks  could significantly  enhance  preparedness  and  containment  efforts.This  review  aims  to  assess  the  existing  literature  on  influenza prediction models, focusing on their application to the Hajj pilgrimage setting.

Methods: We collected data on influenza's infectivity, the susceptibility and immunity levels among Hajj pilgrims from health authorities, and contact rates and patterns from previous surveys. Crowd modeling techniques were employed to simulate the pilgrims' movements in terms of time and location. A close contact was defined as any individual within a 2-meter radius of an infected  person,  with  further  categorizations  based  on  the  pilgrims'  countries  of  origin  and  ages  to  reflect  the  impact  on transmission patterns.

Results: The compilation of epidemiological parameters and crowd movement simulations offers a foundation for predicting the spread of the influenza virus among Hajj pilgrims. These models consider various factors, including contact rates and pilgrim demographics,to forecast potential outbreaks.

Conclusion: Effective prediction models for influenza transmission during the Hajj can guide and enhance preventive measures. By understanding the dynamics of pilgrim interactions and the disease's infectivity, health authorities can better prepare for and potentially mitigate the impact of epidemics.