Assessing and Examining the Influence of International Trade on Iraq's Economic Growth Spanning the Period from 1991 to 2021

Abstract

The study examines the impact of foreign trade, including exports and imports, on Iraq's GDP from 1991 to 2021. It uses the Nonlinear Autoregressive Distributed Lag (NARDL) model to analyze the individual impacts of total exports, imports, and overall trade on Iraq's GDP. The results show a nonlinear relationship between total trade volume and GDP, suggesting a complex relationship that does not follow a typical linear pattern. Export volume changes also have a nonlinear impact on real GDP, indicating a crucial factor in shaping the local economy. Import volume also shows a significant nonlinear effect at a 5% significance level, attributed to nonlinear changes in the movement of imports and their impact on economic activity.