The Influence of Land as an Economic Factor on Emigration Decisions: Evidence from Afghanistan

Abstract

This comprehensive study delves into the multifaceted dynamics of emigration decisions in Afghanistan from 2016 to 2021, with a focus on the impact of land as an economic factor. Employing a binary logistic regression model and a cross-sectional time series dataset, the research uncovers significant findings. Notably, the logistic regression analysis underscores a compelling inverse correlation between land ownership and emigration, with a one-hectare increase in land reducing the likelihood of emigration by 0.3%.

Intriguingly, this association remains consistent across various income levels, livestock ownership, employment statuses, and rural area sub-samples. Additionally, the study reveals the nuanced interplay of income, particularly among middle-income individuals and the employed, and its negative influence on emigration. Household livestock ownership, in tandem with employment status, also exerts a substantial negative effect on emigration, with both small and medium-sized land holdings exhibiting similar patterns.

Moreover, the research considers social factors, such as dissatisfaction with public services, political instability, internet usage, and the presence of relatives abroad, all of which positively influence emigration decisions. Demographic factors, including age, education, residence, household size, gender, and marital status, further shape the decision-making process.

By intertwining the economic implications of land ownership with the empirically supported insights of forensic marketing, this study provides invaluable insights for public policy, academics, and international donor organizations. It underscores the importance of considering both pull and push factors when addressing migration dynamics in Afghanistan and presents a holistic framework for strategic managerial choices in the context of changing emigration patterns.