Correlation Analysis between the Variation of GDP and the Percentage Variation of Colombian Emigrants

Abstract

This research has highlighted the connection between economic conditions and the aspirations of Colombians to explore opportunities beyond their homeland, a trend that has experienced substantial variations since the Republic of Colombia exists as an independent nation. In an increasingly interconnected world, understanding the motivations and determinants of emigration is crucial, and that is why this study adds depth to the discourse on the complex interaction between economic variables and emigration decisions and, ultimately, leaves the open door to inquire into the factors that drive Colombians to seek new horizons abroad. Based on all of the above, this study rigorously examines the intricate relationship between the variable "Percentage variation in the Gross Domestic Product (GDP)" and the emigration patterns quantified by the variable "Number of Colombian emigrants" through an analysis of statistical correlation in which the Spearman coefficient was determined. With a P value of 0.00557, lower than the significance level worked on 𝛂 = 0.05, it has been determined that there is a significant correlation between the variation in GDP and the percentage variation in the number of Colombian migrants. Subsequently, the Spearman correlation coefficient was calculated, obtaining a value r = 0.83, which allowed us to conclude that the interdependence of these two variables responds to a strong correlation between them. Generally speaking, there is sufficient statistical evidence to affirm that, as Colombia's GDP grows or decreases, there is a concomitant increase or decrease in the number of Colombian emigrants. These results shed light on the multifaceted nature of Colombian emigration, in which economic variations play a fundamental role in shaping emigration patterns, and in turn have substantial importance for policy makers and researchers, as they offer a data-driven perspective on the intricate dynamics driving emigration.