Viewpoint: Population projections and migration commissions

Abstract

On the one hand the techniques of demographic projection are essential: they offer powerful and objective quantitative methods that, implemented and interpreted properly, can provide a hypothetical migration commission with critical insights into possible futures - futures that might otherwise not be apparent by examining contem-poraneous data. At the same time, if implemented improperly or interpreted naively, such long range demographic projections could represent instruments of confusion, exaggeration, and even deliberate distortion. Both the strengths and weaknesses in-herent in the use of demographic projections need to be understood by any immigra-tion commission that might emerge.