Caste in Shadow: Empirical Evidence on Intra-Muslim Stratification and Systematic Exclusion from NSS to PLFS (2004–2024)

Abstract

Indian Muslims are often treated as a homogeneous minority, obscuring profound internal inequalities rooted in caste. This study systematically disaggregates Muslims into Ashraf (elite), Ajlaf (backward), and Arzal (Dalit-equivalent) categories using harmonized data from multiple National Sample Survey rounds (2004-2025), the Periodic Labour Force Survey (2023-24), Census 2011, and preliminary 2025 caste enumeration results. Employing multilevel regression, Oaxaca-Blinder decomposition, and composite mobility indices, we find that Ashraf Muslims (2.1% of the population) approach Hindu Upper Caste mobility (SMI: 71.2 vs. 78.4), while Pasmanda Ajlaf and Arzal—constituting 85% of Muslims—lag behind Hindu SC/ST communities[1] (SMI: 42.3 and 31.8 vs. 46.9). Decomposition attributes 44-52% of Pasmanda employment gaps to discrimination. Institutional analysis reveals systematic Ashraf capture of Muslim institutions (72-86% of leadership positions), while migration reproduces rather than disrupts caste stratification. We conceptualize these dynamics as a "Pasmanda poverty trap"—a self-reinforcing cycle of constitutional exclusion, elite capture, and labor market discrimination. The findings challenge both Hindu-centric caste theory and idealized Muslim egalitarianism, with policy implications for sub-quotas, institutional democratization, and constitutional reform following the 2025 caste enumeration.