The Demographic Impact Of Migration On The Labour Force Across Italian Territories

Abstract

This study explores the impact of cohort turnover and migration flows on labour force dynamics at the sub-national level in Italy. Using municipal-level data from 2018 to 2019, changes in the active population are decomposed into three components: cohort turnover, internal migration, and international[1] migration. Municipalities are classified using the Degree of Urbanization and the National Strategy for Inner Areas. Results show that, although international migration contributes positively to the labour force, it does not compensate for losses caused by population ageing. Internal migration emerges as the main driver of change, with growth concentrated in suburban rather than peripheral areas. The study highlights the key role of internal mobility in shaping local labour markets and reveals marked spatial disparities in demographic and economic development. This analysis offers an initial attempt to disentangle the distinct contributions of internal and international migration in addressing the decline in the labour force linked to population ageing across Italian municipalities.