Understanding The Fertility Patterns Of Italian And Foreign Women In Italy’s Macro-Regions: Insights From Joinpoint Regression And Discriminant Analysis

Abstract

The study analyses the evolution of reproductive behaviour among Italian and foreign women in Italy between 2002 and 2023, in a context of a persistent decline in fertility, and territorial heterogeneity. Using data from the Italian National Institute of Statistics on total fertility rate (TFR) and average age at childbirth (MAC), the study adopts two complementary approaches: joinpoint regression to identify significant changes in temporal trends, and discriminant analysis to [1]distinguish reproductive profiles between macro-regions and between citizenships (Italian and foreign women). The results show that TFR is declining for all women, albeit at different rates and intensities: for Italian women there is a reversal of the trend midway through the period, while for foreign women there is an earlier and more marked decline. The MAC is growing in all groups, indicating a general postponement of motherhood, with a trend towards convergence between the two groups of women. Discriminant analysis reveals clear territorial gradients for Italian women and less separation between foreign women, confirming processes of behavioural convergence in fertility among these women.