Trends And Variability Of Major Fruits Production In Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Pakistan

Abstract

The present study investigates major fruit production trends and analyzes variability in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. The study based on secondary data covers a period of about 34 years i.e. starting from 1980-81 to 2013-14, whereas, the trend models and Cuddy Della Vella Index techniques have been employed to fit the best trend model and variability analysis[1] respectively for major fruits production i.e. Apple, Citrus, Peach, Pear, Plum. Among the studied trend models regarding major fruit production, the power trend model, Cubic trend model, Exponential trend model, Cubic trend model, and Cubic trend model respectively were found adequate for forecasting based on the forecast evaluation criteria (MAD, MSE, and MAPE). Moreover, the variability analysis for each major fruit crop production was 2.46%, 0.27%, 24.07%, 2.20%, and 0.84% respectively.